29 Aug 2013 23:59:09
this is not a rumour about who Arsenal may or may not by, but a truth about transfer policy as relayed by a French director of football who was at London Colney last week.

AW has his list of targets and there is a kitty but the kitty is effectively controlled by Gazidis who relies on input from a team of statisticians. Last year Arsenal (the company) purchased a business that provided statistical info to certain football clubs, Arsenal brought the company/ team in house and are using the team to quantify the value of players-absolute and relative- and look for value a la Moneyball in the US.

Each player's performance is rated relative to peer group / league / country etc and the statisticians come up with a relative value. Throw in wages and length of contract sought and unfortunately the relative value placed on all targets has to date fallen short of the values put on their players by potential selling clubs. which is not rocket science to understand if you are going for key players in any club.

So whilst AW/ Arsenal are bidding his/ their hands are tied by the valuation parameters set by the statisticians, so AW is doing the best but he is stopped from paying the prices demanded by selling clubs.

From the same source, is that there is an amount reserved to purchase Cesc should Barcelona decide to sell and Arsenal will not let Cesc fall into Man Utd's hands.

So whilst I have no clue on targets, everything will go down to the wire and maybe seller clubs will accept lowish (but what Arsenal believe to be realistic) bids and whether part of the kitty is used in having to buy back Cesc as they will not let him go to Man Utd.

so don't blame AW, he has his targets but he does not control what Arsenal are prepared to pay for any player nor the cheque book.

1.) 30 Aug 2013
Very interesting!

2.) 30 Aug 2013
To suggest we are coming up short in valuation is a no-brainer. Every player is overvalued by the club, of course you'll get shot down for offering their worth. These days you're always going to pay over the odds because of the way Chelsea/City/RM, etc. have ruined the game.

It would have made much more sense if you said they were the ones doing identification of targets worth going for, because that's what Moneyball is--the ones who are overlooked because they aren't superstars, but are still great players to buy simply because they come in for cheap after being ignored by everyone else.

3.) 30 Aug 2013
Ultimately the cost of a player is dictated by market forces, supply and demand.

The value a buying club places on a particular player may be less but they also have to include the broader losses that the club may incur if they fail to buy in players of sufficient quality in any cost calculation.

Slipping down the League, failing to progress in cup comps, missing Champions League all cost the club, whether from participation funding, becoming less attractive to TV schedulers and losing out on sponsorships.

Losing the profile of a "Big" team reduces worldwide supporters and the revenue generated from merchandise.

All these things have to be taken into consideration.

Does a team want to compete with the best, win trophys and reap the rewards of success which vastly outweigh the inflated costs of star players or do they want to pat themselves on the back for being shrewd and not paying what an algorithm has calculated is over the odds for any player and slip quietly into insignifance?

4.) 30 Aug 2013
Giberish! A £40,000, 001 bid would not be calculated through statistics.
We may have people trying to decipher the correct value of players but I do not believe anyone would be so stupid as to be this restrictive.
The reality is different players hold a greater or lower value to each and every team.
We are in desperate need of a Striker so to us Suarez could be worth up to £60m, whereas Real Madrid have this position covered so he may only be worth £25m to them.
Statistics can be helpful but not if that is all you look at. If it was then Mertecrapper would be considered one of he greatest defenders ever!

5.) 30 Aug 2013
Tempting for the AKB's to beleive, but the rest of us know its simply not true. Yes no doubt there is statistical analysis, but it does not form the basis for deciding the value of bids. And to suggest Gazidas is with holding the money is the same lie the AKBs have been coming out with for years.